万利游戏平台下载

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                                We Need To Prepare For Future Crises Like We Prepare For War

                                2020 March 22
                                by Greg Satell

                                万利游戏平台下载In a 2015 , Bill Gates warned that “if anything kills ten million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes.” He went on to point out that we have invested enormous amounts of money in nuclear deterrents, but relatively little to battle epidemics.

                                It’s an apt point. In the US, we enthusiastically spend on our military, but cut corners on nearly everything else. Major breakthroughs, such as GPS satellites, the Internet and transistors, are merely offshoots of budgets intended to help us fight wars more effectively. At the same time, politicians gleefully to the NIH.

                                A crisis, in one sense, is like anything else. It eventually ends and, when it does, we hope to be wiser for it. No one knows how long this epidemic will last or what the impact will be, but one thing is for sure — it will not be our last crisis. We should treat this as a new Sputnik moment and prepare for the next crisis with the same vigor with which we prepare for war.

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                                How Transformational Leaders Learn To Overcome Failure

                                2020 March 15
                                by Greg Satell

                                When we think of great leaders their great successes usually come to mind. We picture Washington crossing the Delaware or Gandhi leading massive throngs or Steve Jobs standing triumphantly on stage. It is moments of triumph such as these that make indelible marks on history’s consciousness.

                                万利游戏平台下载While researching my book, , however, what struck me most is how often successful change movements began with failure. It seems that those later, more triumphant moments can blind us to the struggles that come before. That can give us a mistaken view of what it takes to drive transformational change.

                                万利游戏平台下载To be clear, these early and sometimes tragic failures are not simply the result of bad luck. Rather they happen because most new leaders are not ready to lead and make novice mistakes. The difference, I have found, between truly transformational leaders and those that fail isn’t so much innate talent or even ambition, but their ability to learn along the way.

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                                When Pundits Say That Robots Will Take Our Jobs, Remember These 4 Things

                                2020 March 8
                                by Greg Satell

                                A by the Brookings Institution found that over 61% of jobs will be affected by automation. That comes on the heels of a from the McKinsey Global Institute that found that 51% of total working hours and $2.7 trillion dollars in wages are highly susceptible to automation and a that found 47% of jobs will be replaced.

                                The future looks pretty grim indeed until you start looking at jobs that have already been automated. Fly-by-wire was introduced in 1968, but today we’re facing a . The number of since ATMs were introduced. Overall, the US is facing a .

                                万利游戏平台下载In fact, although , labor participation rates have since then. Everywhere you look, as automation increases, so does the demand for skilled humans. So the challenge ahead isn’t so much finding work for humans, but to prepare humans to do the types of work that will be in demand in the years to come.

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                                Politicians Like To Talk About Innovation. Here Are 3 Things They Should Actually Be Doing About It

                                2020 March 1
                                by Greg Satell

                                万利游戏平台下载In the 1960s, the federal government of all research funding, yet by 2016 that had fallen to just over 20%. During the same time, businesses’ share of R&D investment more than doubled from about 30% to almost 70%. Government’s role in US innovation, it seems, has greatly diminished.

                                Yet suggests that the opposite is actually true. Analyzing all patents since 1926, researchers found that the number of patents that relied on government support has risen from 12% in the 1980s to almost 30% today. Interestingly, the same research found that startups benefitted the most from government research.

                                As we struggle to improve productivity from historical lows, we need the public sector to play a part. The truth is that the government has a unique role to play in driving innovation and research is only part of it. In addition to funding labs and scientists, it can help bring new ideas to market, act as a convening force and offer crucial expertise to private businesses.

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                                How To Create Change That Lasts

                                2020 February 23
                                by Greg Satell

                                When Lou Gerstner took over at IBM in 1993, the century-old tech giant was in dire straits. Overtaken by nimbler upstarts, like Microsoft in software, Compaq in hardware and Intel in microprocessors, it was hemorrhaging money. Many believed that it needed to be broken up into smaller, more focused units in order to compete.

                                Yet Gerstner saw it differently and kept the company intact, which led to one of the most dramatic turnarounds in corporate history. Today, more than a quarter century later, while many of its formal rivals have long since disappeared IBM is still profitable and on the cutting edge of many of the most exciting technologies.

                                That success was no accident. In researching my book, , I studied not only business transformations, but many social and political movements as well. What I found is that while most change efforts fail, the relatively few that succeed follow a pattern that is amazingly consistent. If you want to create change that lasts, here’s what you need to do.

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                                As Our Technology Becomes Infinitely More Powerful, We Are Entering A New Ethical Universe

                                2020 February 16
                                by Greg Satell

                                We take it for granted that we’re supposed to act ethically and, usually, that seems pretty simple. Don’t lie, cheat or steal, don’t hurt anybody on purpose and act with good intentions. In some professions, like law or medicine, the issues are somewhat more complex and practitioners are trained to make good decisions.

                                Yet ethics in the more classical sense isn’t so much about doing what you know is right, but thinking seriously about what the right thing is. Unlike the classic “ten commandments” type of morality, there are many situations that arise in which determining the right action to take is far from obvious.

                                万利游戏平台下载Today, as our technology becomes vastly more powerful and complex, ethical issues are  increasingly rising to the fore. Over the next decade we will have to build some consensus on issues like what accountability a machine should have and to what extent we should alter the nature of life. The answers are far from clear-cut, but we desperately need to find them.

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                                Why Software Won’t Eat The World

                                2020 February 9
                                by Greg Satell

                                In 2011, technology pioneer Marc Andreessen declared that . “With lower start-up costs and a vastly expanded market for online services,” he wrote, “the result is a global economy that for the first time will be fully digitally wired — the dream of every cyber-visionary of the early 1990s, finally delivered, a full generation later.

                                Yet as Derek Thompson recently in The Atlantic, the euphoria of Andreessen and his Silicon Valley brethren seems to have been misplaced. Former unicorns like Uber, Lyft, and Peloton have seen their value crash, while WeWork saw its IPO self-destruct. Hardly “the dream of every cyber-visionary.”

                                The truth is that we still live in a world of atoms, not bits and most of the value is created by making things we live in, wear, eat and ride in. For all of the tech world’s astounding success, it still makes up only a of the overall economy. So taking a software centric view, while it has served Silicon Valley well in the past, may be its Achilles heel in the future.

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                                The Hard Thing About Hard Facts

                                2020 February 2
                                by Greg Satell

                                In 1977, Ken Olsen, the founder and CEO of Digital Equipment Corporation, reportedly said, “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” It was an amazingly foolish thing to say and, ever since, observers have pointed to Olsen’s comment to show how supposed experts can be wildly wrong.

                                The problem is that Olsen . In fact, his company was actually in the business of selling personal computers and he had one in his own home. This happens more often than you would think. Other famous quotes, such IBM CEO Thomas Watson , are similarly false.

                                There is great fun in bashing experts, which is why . If the experts are always getting it wrong, then we are liberated from the constraints of expertise and the burden of evidence. That’s the hard thing about hard facts. They can be so elusive that it’s easy to believe doubt their existence. Yet they do exist and they matter.

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                                Why We Fail To Plan For The Future

                                2020 January 26
                                by Greg Satell

                                I was recently reading Michiu Kaku’s wonderful book, , about  colonizing space and was amazed how detailed some of the plans are. Plans for a Mars colony, for example, are already fairly advanced. In other cases, scientists are actively thinking about technologies that won’t be viable for a century or more.

                                万利游戏平台下载Yet while we seem to be so good at planning for life in outer space, we are much less capable of thinking responsibly about the future here on earth, especially in the United States. Our federal government deficit recently to 4.6% of GDP, which is obviously unsustainable in an economy that’s growing at a meager 2.3%.

                                That’s just one data point, but everywhere you look we seem to be unable to plan for the future. Consumer debt in the US levels exceeding those before the crash in 2008. Our infrastructure is . Air quality is . The list goes on. We need to start thinking more seriously about the future, but don’t seem to be able. Why is that?

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                                Why Fears About China Are, Mostly, Overblown

                                2020 January 19
                                by Greg Satell

                                The rise of China over the last 40 years has been one of history’s great economic miracles. According , since it began opening up its economy in 1979, China’s GDP has grown from a paltry $178 billion to a massive $13.6 trillion. At the same time, research by McKinsey that its middle class is expanding rapidly.

                                万利游戏平台下载What’s more, it seems like the Asian giant is just getting started. China has become and has embarked on two major initiatives: , which aims to make it the leading power in 10 emerging industries, and a massive that seeks to shore up its power throughout Asia.

                                Many predict that China will dominate the 21st century in much the same way that America dominated the 20th. Yet I’m not so sure. First, American dominance was due to an unusual confluence of forces unlikely to be repeated. Second, China has weaknesses—and we have strengths—that aren’t immediately obvious. We need to be clear headed about China’s rise.

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