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                          How To Create Change That Lasts

                          2020 February 23
                          by Greg Satell

                          万利游戏平台下载When Lou Gerster took over at IBM in 1993, the century-old tech giant was in dire straits. Overtaken by nimbler upstarts, like Microsoft in software, Compaq in hardware and Intel in microprocessors, it was hemorrhaging money. Many believed that it needed to be broken up into smaller, more focused units in order to compete.

                          万利游戏平台下载Yet Gerstner saw it differently and kept the company intact, which led to one of the most dramatic turnarounds in corporate history. Today, more than a quarter century later, while many of its formal rivals have long since disappeared IBM is still profitable and on the cutting edge of many of the most exciting technologies.

                          That success was no accident. In researching my book, , I studied not only business transformations, but many social and political movements as well. What I found is that while most change efforts fail, the relatively few that succeed follow a pattern that is amazingly consistent. If you want to create change that lasts, here’s what you need to do.

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                          As Our Technology Becomes Infinitely More Powerful, We Are Entering A New Ethical Universe

                          2020 February 16
                          by Greg Satell

                          We take it for granted that we’re supposed to act ethically and, usually, that seems pretty simple. Don’t lie, cheat or steal, don’t hurt anybody on purpose and act with good intentions. In some professions, like law or medicine, the issues are somewhat more complex and practitioners are trained to make good decisions.

                          Yet ethics in the more classical sense isn’t so much about doing what you know is right, but thinking seriously about what the right thing is. Unlike the classic “ten commandments” type of morality, there are many situations that arise in which determining the right action to take is far from obvious.

                          万利游戏平台下载Today, as our technology becomes vastly more powerful and complex, ethical issues are  increasingly rising to the fore. Over the next decade we will have to build some consensus on issues like what accountability a machine should have and to what extent we should alter the nature of life. The answers are far from clear-cut, but we desperately need to find them.

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                          Why Software Won’t Eat The World

                          2020 February 9
                          by Greg Satell

                          万利游戏平台下载In 2011, technology pioneer Marc Andreessen declared that . “With lower start-up costs and a vastly expanded market for online services,” he wrote, “the result is a global economy that for the first time will be fully digitally wired — the dream of every cyber-visionary of the early 1990s, finally delivered, a full generation later.

                          Yet as Derek Thompson recently in The Atlantic, the euphoria of Andreessen and his Silicon Valley brethren seems to have been misplaced. Former unicorns like Uber, Lyft, and Peloton have seen their value crash, while WeWork saw its IPO self-destruct万利游戏平台下载. Hardly “the dream of every cyber-visionary.”

                          The truth is that we still live in a world of atoms, not bits and most of the value is created by making things we live in, wear, eat and ride in. For all of the tech world’s astounding success, it still makes up only a of the overall economy. So taking a software centric view, while it has served Silicon Valley well in the past, may be its Achilles heel in the future.

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                          The Hard Thing About Hard Facts

                          2020 February 2
                          by Greg Satell

                          In 1977, Ken Olsen, the founder and CEO of Digital Equipment Corporation, reportedly said, “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” It was an amazingly foolish thing to say and, ever since, observers have pointed to Olsen’s comment to show how supposed experts can be wildly wrong.

                          The problem is that Olsen . In fact, his company was actually in the business of selling personal computers and he had one in his own home. This happens more often than you would think. Other famous quotes, such IBM CEO Thomas Watson , are similarly false.

                          There is great fun in bashing experts, which is why . If the experts are always getting it wrong, then we are liberated from the constraints of expertise and the burden of evidence. That’s the hard thing about hard facts. They can be so elusive that it’s easy to believe doubt their existence. Yet they do exist and they matter.

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                          Why We Fail To Plan For The Future

                          2020 January 26
                          by Greg Satell

                          万利游戏平台下载I was recently reading Michiu Kaku’s wonderful book, , about  colonizing space and was amazed how detailed some of the plans are. Plans for a Mars colony, for example, are already fairly advanced. In other cases, scientists are actively thinking about technologies that won’t be viable for a century or more.

                          Yet while we seem to be so good at planning for life in outer space, we are much less capable of thinking responsibly about the future here on earth, especially in the United States. Our federal government deficit recently to 4.6% of GDP, which is obviously unsustainable in an economy that’s growing at a meager 2.3%.

                          万利游戏平台下载That’s just one data point, but everywhere you look we seem to be unable to plan for the future. Consumer debt in the US levels exceeding those before the crash in 2008. Our infrastructure is . Air quality is . The list goes on. We need to start thinking more seriously about the future, but don’t seem to be able. Why is that?

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                          Why Fears About China Are, Mostly, Overblown

                          2020 January 19
                          by Greg Satell

                          The rise of China over the last 40 years has been one of history’s great economic miracles. According , since it began opening up its economy in 1979, China’s GDP has grown from a paltry $178 billion to a massive $13.6 trillion. At the same time, research by McKinsey that its middle class is expanding rapidly.

                          万利游戏平台下载What’s more, it seems like the Asian giant is just getting started. China has become and has embarked on two major initiatives: , which aims to make it the leading power in 10 emerging industries, and a massive that seeks to shore up its power throughout Asia.

                          Many predict that China will dominate the 21st century in much the same way that America dominated the 20th. Yet I’m not so sure. First, American dominance was due to an unusual confluence of forces unlikely to be repeated. Second, China has weaknesses—and we have strengths—that aren’t immediately obvious. We need to be clear headed about China’s rise.

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                          What Amazon’s Entrance Tells Us About The New Era Of Quantum Computing

                          2020 January 12
                          by Greg Satell

                          万利游戏平台下载This past December, Amazon that it was launching a new quantum computing service, called Braket, joining the ranks of tech giants like Google, Microsoft and IBM. However, it quickly became clear that Amazon was not creating its own technology, but offering that of other companies to its customers through the cloud.

                          The story gets even stranger when you consider that the purpose of the service is not to do anything of any immediate practical value, but to allow “scientists, researchers, and developers to begin experimenting” with quantum technology. The companies providing the hardware, , , and , are themselves fledgling companies.

                          So why would Amazon promote, with great fanfare, a technology it doesn’t own and that doesn’t really work to customers who can’t use it to solve any practical problems? The reason is that we are entering a new era of innovation in which it is no longer enough to simply . We need to do more than just adapt. We need to learn to prepare.

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                          2020: A Decade To Rediscover Our Humanity

                          2020 January 5
                          by Greg Satell

                          万利游戏平台下载Take a moment to think about what the world looked like exactly a century ago. By 1920, the disruptive technologies of the day, electricity and internal combustion, were already almost 40 years old, but had little measurable economic impact. For most people, life largely went on as it always had, with little to indicate that much was amiss.

                          万利游戏平台下载Over the next decade, however, that would change. As ecosystems formed around the new technologies, productivity soared and living standards dramatically improved. However, the news wasn’t all good. While technology did much to improve people’s lives, it also facilitated war and genocide on an unprecedented scale.

                          万利游戏平台下载Today, we are likely at a similar point. Nascent technologies have the potential to create a new era of productivity, but also horrific destruction. Too often, we forget that technology should serve humans and not the other way around. Make no mistake, This is not a problem we can innovate our way out of. Technology will not save us. We need to make better choices.

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                          Top Posts of 2019

                          2019 December 15
                          by Greg Satell

                          2019 was a big year for me personally. I finally published my book, , a project I had been working on for 15 years, about how to create transformational change. The book has its roots in my experiences in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution万利游戏平台下载, where I first noticed the forces behind ideas that spread.

                          The response has been overwhelming! Reader response has been off the charts and, even better, as we’ve begun training teams in the Cascades process for driving transformational change we’ve seen first-hand how much of an impact it can have in the real world. It’s just so gratifying when you can see your work having a real impact!

                          Most of all, I think that 2019 will be seen as a pivotal year. As the digital revolution winds down and new technologies such as synthetic biology, materials science and AI rise to the fore, we’re going to see unprecedented challenges and opportunities over the next decade. These were the things I wrote about over the past year. Here are my top articles for 2019.

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                          The 2019 Digital Tonto Reading List

                          2019 December 8
                          by Greg Satell

                          Different years seem to have different truths. For example, while 1968 was a struggle for freedom, with mass protests erupting throughout the world, 1989, with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the invention of the World Wide Web, seemed to fulfill that promise. Other years have had other truths.

                          I have a strong sense that 2019 will be remembered as a pivotal year. It has been, to a large degree, a year of alternative truths that will need to be resolved in the years ahead. The books that we publish and read will play an important role in establishing which truths we are willing to accept.

                          万利游戏平台下载That’s why books are so important. They help us establish today’s truths and record them for posterity. Often, we find that truths established today are thoroughly debunked for at some future time, while some neglected truths are later uncovered and brought to the fore. Here’s my list of the books I’ve read and written about over the past year. Let them be judged kindly.

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